By William Akalumhe
I told people that these three guys were doomed even before the election. I don’t know how they wanted to win. Its more of having one’s head in the cloud.
One party divided into three, shortly before a general election can’t win. They simply clear out each other. They don’t have technical analysts.
They simply share their votes with minimal incursion into the strongholds of the All Progressives Congress, APC.
Thank God for the currency policy colonization of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, and the fuel crisis; if not by now, no one will be taking about the numbers, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu declaration speech will the object of debate. He would have won with far greater margin.
The man is the cat with nine lives. He plays his game very well and will never let any slob mess them up for him. He knows his weaknesses, compliment this with strong first class minds and ideologues. He fixes mind on the trophy and refused to be distracted. He kicks at the right time and speaks when the time is most auspicious.
He hates no one. He believes life is about interest. Today you are not with him, the next he brings you on board. He courts and builds relationships. He develops his vision, while others are sleeping. He will allow you take the crumbs, while he waits for the full meal. He surrendered his Senate ambition to Ganiyu Solomon, refused to be Vice President or nominated his wife, but picked an apolitical pastor, who he invested so much in trust and otherwise. When he wanted to play the cheat on him, he released his boys to go for him. He made them ostracized him and cut him off politically. He simply made an Akintola out of him.
For almost 20 years, he decided his ambition, played his game, worked for it. Set up a party, pushed out cronies he knew won’t win, expand the platform to negotiate and bargain with the Northern new power brokers and traditional rulers. They believe he keeps his words and don’t stab from behind. The old order, however, are scared of his independent mind, courage and boldness. He dealt a big blow on the Afenifere group, made a mess of Olusegun Obasanjo, cut off Bode George, but have the likes of General Ipoola Akinrinade, Prof Woke Soyinka, and other key strategic guys from his race around him.
The above illustrates how to build an ambition. He didn’t build his own on quick sands. The outcome is the result of this election that many are yet to accept its reality. They are not realists, he is. He has his feet firmly on the ground.
Rather than take advantage of the poor state of the economy, security and disenchantment with the APC regime by building strong alliances across the country, they choose to be over ambitious and refused to accept that the three of them can’t all be president at same time. This is one lesson of life. Inordinate ambition. Lack of flexibility. Lack of strategic thinking.
In 2015, Asiwaju led a merger process that defeated the then ruling party. The proponent of the merger were not oblivious of the fact of history. They knew none of the small and regional parties can confront a political behemoth like the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, hence the need for handshakes across. They even went ahead and poach strategic members of the then ruling party, used them and later dump them, knowing how prostitutous they are.
Rather than build a formidable party to confront the APC, the PDP got fractionalised into PDP-NNNP, PDP-Labour, PDP- Dubai, and even the five renegade governors. The outcome is the failure they refused to accept today.
Peter Obi led a mob that was built around religious and ethnic sentiments. Telling the church to take over the country. The message sounded sweet to the leaders of many of the pentecostal unit, but they ignored the startling consequences of making such statement in a country with many religions. His native people, who some years back hated him in their utterances for his dismal performance as a governor, suddenly saw a route to the Presidency, bullying and insulting everyone on the way, forgetting that winning the presidential election is beyond region. They didn’t read history very well. Obafemi Awolowo tried it, he failed.
They got supports from the youths down South, mostly influenced by their huge membership of the pentecostal churches and collective excitement. These group is filled majorly by those into showbiz, the comedians, musicians, artists etc
Atiku Abubakar built his candidacy and championed it on the basis of the large population of voters from the North. He appealed to his people who naturally feel entitled to the leadership of the country. The same Atiku, whose permanent home town is Dubai, wants to be President since 1992, yet has refused to build the needed capacity to win. He lacked conviction, lacked tack and is unstable.
Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso on the other hand new about his limited reach, but wanted to prove a point. Yes, he has proved that point. He is truly a spoiler.
The three of them simply canceled one another out. Every where they won, Asiwaju Tinubu came second. In Kano, Kwakwanso won, but Asiwaju’s margin of over 400,000 votes against Atiku’s was more than enough to clear out the loss to him in Osun, Yobe, Katsina, and Adamawa. Obi won Lagos, but the winning didn’t translate to anything. The margin was not up to a 10th of his loss in Ondo, Osun, Ekiti, and Oyo states, talk less of Niger and Kwara states.
They refused to deal with the ruling party as one unit. They have themselves to blame. Anyone who has been following politics will know that none of them was going to win. In 1983, the failure of Chief Awolowo and Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe to step down for each other led to the massive winning of the defunct National Party of Nigeria, NPN.
An alliance that was muted by the turks in the North, led by Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, to confront the NPN failed, because the two gladiators were not ready to step down. Both wanted to become President, but forgot the theory of probability. They were not going to be President at same time. They failed to accept that. Instead, they went into the election as two weak parties.
The consequence, thedefunct Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN, failed to win Oyo, old Bendel states, though gained Kwara due to the crisis between Adamu Attah and late Olusola Saraki – the then governor of Kwara State from the Ebira stock and Senate Majority Leader respectively. The same thing played out in Oyo State when the UPN at the last minute had great members like late Chief SM Afolabi from Ire and Osun divison alongside the likes of Chief Busari Oloyede Adelakun, the strong man from Ejioku in now Lagelu Local Government and others decamping to the NPN. They teamed up with Oyo, Ogbomoso and Ibadan axis of the NPN to defeat the UPN.
On the part of the defunct Nigeria Peoples Party, NPP, led by Dr Azikiwe, they failed to win Anambra, his own home state and Benue under Aper Aku. The party was only able to retain Imo State because of the strong influence and performance of Sam Mbakwe. Even Jim Nwobodo was defeated by the combined strength of Dr CC Onnoh and Ikemba Odimegwu Ojukwu.
This election has come and gone. These guys making noises now, didn’t plan to win. If at all they did, their plans were on very weak grounds. They also seem to have their heads in the cloud. They forgot the rules. Numbers, unity of the team, capacity, financial muscle, relationship across the many divides, etc.
Way Forward:
The country needs a strong opposition. The country must exist with a strong alternative at all times. The best way to make the ruling party to perform is to have a strong shadow ruling party. But not in the mold of the PDP. Democracy strives on the basis of regular election with options to make choices.
Having said that, Kwakwanso and Obi must reach a deal on how to work together, work with Charles Soludo to deepen their hold in the South East and build relationships beyond. The new party should desist from playing religious and ethnic card. Forget about building mobs. Forget about being fantasized by religious leaders with crooked interest. Play genuine opposition and grow numbers by harvesting renegades from the ruling party, identify the strength of ruling party and attack them from their weakest point.
To my mind, this is the best election since the days of June 12. Imagine a sitting President losing his state, the projected winner losing his main base, key strategic governors not able to deliver. Labour Party, NNPP and APGA should merge, leave the PDP out and start working for next election.
•Akalumhe is a financial expert and a political analyst.
